Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth is expected to pick up to 3.8% in 2024 and rise further to 4.1% in 2025.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to experience economic growth, projected to rise from 2.9% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024 and further to 4.1% in 2025. However, the recent slowdown is attributed to decelerated growth in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola, the three largest economies in the region. Weakening external demand, domestic policy tightening, and conflicts hindered post-pandemic recoveries. Nigeria's growth softened due to disruptive currency policies, while South Africa faced monetary policy tightening, an energy crisis, and transport bottlenecks. Angola's growth weakened due to declining oil production.

Despite moderating consumer price inflation in 2023, the cost of living remains high, worsening economic hardships and increasing food insecurity. The outlook for SSA's growth in 2024 and 2025 is positive, with an expected acceleration as inflationary pressures fade and financial conditions ease. However, per capita income is projected to grow modestly, and in about 30% of the region's economies, per capita GDP may not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, indicating a significant setback.

Various downside risks threaten the economic outlook, including political instability, disruptions to global or local trade and production, adverse weather events linked to climate change, a sharper-than-expected global economic slowdown, and an increased risk of government defaults. Escalation of conflict in the Middle East could exacerbate food insecurity in SSA, affecting both production costs and supply chains. The rise in public debt service costs since the pandemic underscores the need for debt reduction, particularly in highly indebted SSA economies.